Initially scheduled for early 2020, but postponed due to COVID-19, the NATO exercise will be the largest for US forces in 25 years, testing their capability to deploy large numbers of troops across the Atlantic. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. 1 Fights over vaccines. On 20 Jan 2021 President Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn Ingress into Aquarius in 2020. Companies should seek to assess the potential regulatory and foreign policy trajectory of alternative future governments, particularly around emissions regulations in the likely event that the Green party will be part of the ruling coalition. Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Companies should consider alternative scenarios and assess any resultant political or regulatory risk. After COVID-19 forced postponement of the Summer Olympic Games in 2020, the government, organisers, sponsors, and participating countries are likely to face difficult decisions in the run-up to the Games as the pandemic persists. Companies should assess the impact of alternative electoral scenarios on regulatory and political risk. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021 Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021. Companies should monitor the summit agenda and assess the likelihood of any potentially business-relevant initiatives. 20 minutes analysis followed by 30 minutes Q&A. If held in early 2021, they will mark an important step towards improving political stability. The one red line remains intact – these states can go through massive unrest and even regime changes, but they should not get closer to NATO and the United States. The potential for increased activity by the armed opposition will raise the likelihood of additional sanctions by the US/EU. Businesses should anticipate heightened political sensitivities in the run-up to and during the anniversary celebrations, with pressure on officials to avoid controversy or disruption. This election cycle will coincide with the second anniversary of President Narendra Modi’s re-election and will serve as a mid-term referendum on his leadership. December 27, 2020. These were the top trends selected by analysing the geostrategic policies, national interests of superpowers and other intangible factors. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. With Morocco’s diplomacy dominating the headlines it is easy to overlook regional issues. Ukraine will work hard to secure a high-level Normandy Summit meeting with Russia, Germany and France to discuss resolving the war in the east. Re-evaluate scenarios for the outlook of geopolitical security in the region following the change of power in the White House and expect a potential spike in state-sponsored cyber attacks. The countries in Southeast Asia will have to choose the sides more wisely whereas Europe and MENA will try to stay neutral. Taiwan issue may again escalate and both countries will try to solve the problem non militarily and a cycle of sanctions will begin. Biden Administration is also planning to re-join Paris agreement and participate in UN’s COP26 in Nov 2021. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. Geopolitical competition in Africa has been intensifying, with private-sector investors increasingly finding that the competitive landscape is shaped by geopolitics. Overview. Ties with Russia, Beijing & Tehran, which have deteriorated rapidly under Trump, are also likely to be a particular focus in 2021. Leaders will set the tone for domestic policies for the rest of the year, and the NPC will approve a new Five-Year Plan for economic and social development in the 2021-25 period. There is no official date for Kim Jong Un’s accession to power after the death of his father, and no well-established practice for marking it or his father’s death. Businesses should monitor events and diplomatic exchanges leading up to the summit to assess the likelihood of a reduction in security and operational threats for businesses in the region, © Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306, This website uses anonymous cookies to improve your experience of our website. On this episode of the BlackRock Bottom Line, Catherine Kress, Advisor to the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, highlights three themes that will shape the post-COVID-19 world. IntelBrief: Geopolitical Trends that Will Pose Challenges to the Biden Administration President-elect Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden are joined by Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff during a COVID-19 memorial event at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in Washington. Regional Mobility Trends. April 6 – The US Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will signal supply and demand trends in the US and global markets. Seasoned Macro Economist and Strategist Christian Takushi offers a compact and efficient online seminar, where Christian business leaders as well as church/ministry leaders can ask their questions. The Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Social Trends Defining Our World | Dambisa Moyo | February 2021 Next Devotional: Elder Gary E. Stevenson Elder Gary E. Stevenson, a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, will deliver the devotional address on Tuesday, March 2, at 11:05 a.m. Continued political deadlock and economic distress in Lebanon will lead to an emotional anniversary, as well as the potential for significant protests and unrest. The position of Boris Johnson is also threatened as he seems to move away from conservative party from Brexit policies. Businesses must assess the potential longer-term implications on post-COVID economic recovery given the prospect of further gridlocks over government formation. This risk doesn’t end with the US and China or Iran & Israel. The new year begins with good news of vaccine. Businesses should assess new climate pledges made by countries in the months leading up to the conference and understand the pace and reach of any regulatory changes as a result of these pledges. Key trends include regional economic downturns in most key markets apart from China, as the full impact of Covid’s cost hits, heightened use of key global summits to re-establish US influence, possibly leading to increased trade and global health policy tensions. In case of China the only difference that President Biden makes is change of tone rest all is same or may be tougher. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … Organisations should assess potential regulatory implications of alternative scenarios for Japan’s future political trajectory, including a potential return to more unstable ruling coalitions. Description. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. 1 Fights over vaccines. Assess the impact of government and economic instability as fallout from COVID and Brexit dominate. Monitor key regulatory trends relevant to businesses, including on environmental regulation, economic stimulus and pandemic management. A potential victory for the opposition will elevate political and macro-economic risks. Apr 7, 2021 Crude Oil Prices Struggle After Dual Crises, but Long-term Bullish Potential Remains Apr 7, 2021 USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend Find predictions, insights and analysis on global outlook, markets and geopolitics. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. Following an unpopular constitutional referendum and questions over President Abdelmedjid Tebboune’s health, the anniversary could spark renewed protests. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. While the full ambition of ACFTA – a continent-wide single market in goods and services – will not be achieved quickly, the direction of travel is important. Geopolitical trends and forecasts Middle East and North Africa. After a major tightening of Beijing’s control over the territory since 2020, including cracking down on opposition politicians and activists, if and how elections in Hong Kong proceed will be highly contentious. Biden is also starting negotiations to join Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). Global Mobility Today Global Mobility Trends Regional Mobility Trends. With Brexit done and dusted, Covid-19 vaccine is on its way and predicted President in the Oval office, 2021 should by rights be an easier year for EU. Africa’s market has advantage in 2021 and beyond because it is the continent least affected by Covid-19. The elections will decide Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, with implications for EU unity as well as EU trade, environment and foreign policy. The number 21 is connected to luck, risks, taking chances, opportunities & rolling the dice. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. The president faces more domestic issues than external. Businesses should seek to understand alternative scenarios for security in the Korean peninsula and any security or business implications these might trigger. The continent has the youngest population due to which it should be the centre of the world. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will likely play up Hindu nationalist themes in Assam and West Bengal. Biden will outline his immediate policy agenda. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. Companies should monitor monetary and fiscal policy and evaluate sovereign risks. Re-assess conflict scenarios and expect potential further ballistic missile tests and escalation of rhetoric. This will be a poignant and emotional moment for Armenians, for whom the terms of the ceasefire are widely seen as a national humiliation. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Event Details When: January 28, 2021 9 AM - 10 AM GMT Add to Calendar. The pandemic had brought the African IT sector a significant growth. The Committee may provide indications that CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping is planning to break with convention at the 2022 congress by remaining in power beyond his second five-year term. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of the December 2021 Total Solar Eclipse. 4. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. The FOCAC summit will provide a clear indication of how China – one of the largest players in Africa – intends to approach the continent and whether the pandemic has changed this approach. This year's report is available here. April 7 – Reserve Bank of India makes its interest rate decision. Oil Prices Crash by 8% on Geopolitical Tensions, Recovery Woes ... Mar 18, 2021 at 5:12PM ... the price of crude oil is still up by 20% for the year and the long-term trends appear to … Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will likely signal her succession plans. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Jupiter Ingress into Pisces in 2021. Elections in Hong Kong are currently scheduled for September, but highly likely to be delayed due to planned electoral reforms. The center of attention in 2021, as in 2020, will certainly be Libya. The US-China rivalry will loom over global business in 2021. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can be a “game-changer,” but a lot more have to be done to refine the policies in 2021. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. Biden will mend relations with its allies to wage trade war and Beijing will pursue its ambitious goals. Anything that is in Air is not safe. Understand the outlook for international relations between the US and key partners (Canada, Europe) as well as rivals (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) and the implications on trade, sanctions and the effectiveness of international organisations.