Far from being static, it is continuously evolving. Even if it is not entirely clear who or what will eventually inherit the dollar’s coveted position, the possibility of a transition towards a bipolar or multipolar monetary order is real. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. In fact, it looks like – more than ever before – strategic competition is unfolding in the field of finance. In this context, even covert operations – which are often undertaken in order to derail or at least to delay structural trends – constitute a tool that can be used to protect the supremacy of the greenback in the coming decades. As seasoned financial experts explain, financial and monetary crises are a lot like nuclear chain reactions. Toronto, Ontario, Canada About Blog Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent. Share. The most feasible candidate would be something called “Special Drawing Rights,” an artificial asset created as a unit of account by the International Monetary Fund, and whose value is tied to a basket of several currencies. Therefore, there are reasonable doubts and uncertainty about the monetary reliability of the US dollar in the long run. The scenarios described and examined above illustrate that there are several possible outcomes, all of them heavily shaped by complex geopolitical, economic, financial, and even technological realities. Nepalese and Filipino Maoist outfits have long been suspected of providing rhetorical and material support to the CPI(M). Accordingly, this would likely mean an increased financial Lebensraum for currencies like the euro, the yuan and the pound sterling, amongst others. After all, being the issuer of the world’s top reserve currency is a privilege that entails important costs, including the responsibility to act as a senior military provider of international security. Intelligence reports delivered right to your inbox, Analysis from our global network of experts. Its might is felt in the domains of military affairs, geopolitics, intelligence, industry, energy, science, culture and technology. This is usually related to the development of formidable maritime power projection capabilities, a condition that is necessary in order to ensure the flow of international trade through secure sea lanes. It is possible that the US dollar loses its privileged status without being replaced by a clear successor. Continuously monitor for the geopolitical risks that matter most — from threats in specific regions to mentions tied to dangerous events. Even though the dollar’s position still seems safe for the near future, the hypothetical rise of a parallel financial order anchored to gold as a monetary unit is a possibility that needs to be considered, especially when there are geopolitical incentives to diminish the dollar’s global dominance. In review, Geopolitics Alert publishes news and opinions related to USA conflicts around the world from a non-interventionist perspective. GEOPOLITICAL.BIZ. In other words, the players that control the largest gold holdings would have the chance to define the essential rules in the structural rearrangement of global financial governance. A remarkable precedent was the time when the Byzantine solidus and the Islamic dinar co-existed as international reserve currencies for several centuries during the Middle Ages. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. Finally, one of the main consequences of this would be pronounced regionalization. In the grand scheme of things, trying to freeze structural change is a demanding endeavor that requires vast amounts of military, economic, and political resources. In the grand scheme of things, the so called ‘demonetization’ of gold – the quintessential monetary substance throughout history – is a fairly recent development. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. So far, none of the cryptocurrencies that have been launched is issued by a central bank. Local currency blocs could also rapidly constitute regional trade blocs. Global Security Review Defense & Security. Beijing regards the general atmosphere of global financial and monetary uncertainty as a window of opportunity to strengthen its currency and to downgrade the currency of its top strategic rival: the greenback. That would increase Chinese geoeconomic weight in commodity markets, the international flow of capital, institutional influence and national prestige. This NPR will aim to build confidence among NPT stakeholders, essentially Therefore, even though the current position of US dollar seems solid at a first glance, alternative prospects deserve to be taken into account, particularly in a context in which the greenback faces structural challenges and is being targeted by a myriad of Washington’s strategic rivals. Their currencies follow a similar trajectory. Strategic forecasting is not an exact science, especially when it involves phenomena whose behavior is shaped by several variables. Moreover, the exchange rate of existing stateless cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) is so volatile that –instead of acting as reliable and stable stores of value – they operate like speculative assets. Reach thousands of authority bloggers and social media influencers in your domain area. If they are not effectively contained in a timely manner, their impact can be catastrophic in terms of depth and scope. As a matter of statecraft, China has been assertively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, also known as renminbi, a measure intended to enhance Chinese national power in the realm of finance. Brand Monitoring. It can potentially become a competitive challenger, but one that would have to overcome substantial structural issues if it intends to catch up. Hence, any great power that is interested in crippling the hegemonic role of the greenback needs to carefully calculate the repercussions associated with the geopolitical burden that comes with being the issuer of the world’s dominant currency. Foreign Support It is difficult to establish the degree and scope of external involvement in the Naxalite insurgency. Other factors worth taking into account are the intrinsic volatile nature of contemporary financial markets – which are vulnerable to several kinds of disruptions – the systemic accumulation of unpayable debts, and the implementation of monetary policies that, far from correcting structural imbalances, are actually deepening them. In other words, “sinking” the greenback might – either directly or indirectly – trigger dire financial, economic, and fiscal dislocations that could engulf the attackers themselves. Their implementation would demand a substantial degree of technical and political collaboration – something that for the time being appears elusive. Hence, the rise of the renminbi is a sign of China’s increasing economic strength. If this is enabled, this will transmit speed, location, proximity, and a faster tracking measure by passers or the vessels in real-time. Accordingly, they are often the victims of their own success. In fact, an escalating geopolitical conflict fought in the financial sphere can provoke this very outcome, even if that is not what the contenders intended in the first place. However, the prospects of an eventual restoration of a gold standard are being discussed nowadays. Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. In the early part of 2020, the Center for #Preventive #Action named 26 conflicts to its #Global #Conflict #Tracker that were of particular concern to the United States ( #US ). In fact, this option’s underlying basket could even be widened so it also includes the currencies of emerging markets. Nonetheless, appearances can be deceiving. It could even be argued that the first shots have already been fired in this highly unconventional battle space. Even though it can be enduring, the global monetary order needs to be understood as a process that is always in flux. Die Digitalisierung der Welt führt zu einer neuen Krypto-Ökonomie, die … Geopolitics Alert uses occasional moderate loaded words that favor the left such as: “ There’s a great deal to be said about Donald Trump’s pardon for criminal racist Joe Arpaio. In order to envisage them, it is essential to highlight that nature abhors power voids. However, it is possible to assess the prospects of plausible scenarios. Brand Monitoring. Actually, elements of them can co-exist. Monitor your product name, brand, competitors, keywords, authors, or any other topics. The recent proliferation of cryptocurrencies – a product of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – is seen by some as a game-changer that has given credence to the idea that, at some point, one of them could eventually become the new dominant global currency. There are several alternative plausible scenarios that need to be examined. *This article was originally published on February 20, 2020. If Beijing wants to remake global finance, then it would need to forge a consensus with other economic heavyweights. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. Britain’s Voice on Sexual Violence Must Be Consistent | Geopolitical Monitor If London hopes to have any credibility, it must be uniform in its condemnation of sexual violence. It was also a process that played a role in the breakdown of society and order that ended up in a stark civilizational regression. THE OBAMA NUCLEAR POLICY REVIEW The Obama administration is well aware of the importance of the 2010 NPT review conference, and as such it has been conducting its Nuclear Policy Review (NPR) very carefully. The American dollar is undeniably the lifeblood of trade, banking, business and finance all over the world. Finally, another card that the US can play in case of dangerous geo-financial turmoil is to resort to its gold reserves in order to back the greenback with the yellow metal once again. By Joshua Ball Last updated Jun 7, 2019. Yet, Washington is not exactly powerless and it is logical to assume that it will not relinquish such an asset without a fight. Hence, they have been described as the monetary equivalent of Esperanto. Nevertheless, it is not clear what will happen once the American dollar is no longer the dominant currency. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. In geopolitical terms, this idea might be attractive in case the global balance of power is reasonably stable. Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. is an international intelligence publication and consultancy with its main office located in Toronto, Canada. The latest version of a global gold standard was dismantled when President Nixon refused to deliver gold in exchange for dollars, as was agreed when the Bretton Woods framework was forged through multilateral negotiations. The recent China-Iran agreement presents Baghdad with a profound geopolitical choice: the United States or China? In Latin America, new forms of resistance as well as indigenous concepts of self-determination and autonomy started to question the standard understandings of space. We » Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service. In this scenario, perhaps the golden rule would apply. This is the most common type of submission we receive at Geopoliticalmonitor.com, as it tends to …